“2 in 5 Canadian Newcomers would consider leaving Canada”

We love talking about statistics, reading about statistics, and hearing about statistics—whether it’s about populations, psychographics, behaviours, shopping patterns, demographics, data at the six-digit postal code level, data at census geographic levels, polls, location intelligence, and more.

That’s why, when we see numbers, we pay attention to them. For example, a few days ago, CBC News released survey results that showed 2 in 5 newcomers to Canada would consider leaving Canada.

“Would consider”? Why didn’t they ask:

“Do you plan to leave Canada?”
“Are you preparing to leave Canada?”
“Will you leave Canada in the next 12 months?”
“Will you leave Canada in the next 24 months?”

If 40% of Canadian newcomers are leaving in the next 12 months, the impact would be enormous. According to our data, nearly 4 million newcomers have arrived in Canada since 2020. If 40% of them were to leave, that would be 1.6 million people—equivalent to the entire population of Manitoba or Saskatchewan. Or, it would be like half of all the residents of Toronto leaving. The implications of such a shift would be staggering.

We are often asked, how reliable can a survey be?

The answer depends on several factors: the number of respondents, stratification (e.g., age, sex/gender, income, geography, etc.), and how the questions are phrased. For example, there’s a big difference between asking if someone would “consider” buying a product versus if they would actually purchase it.

This is a classic issue in the Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) industry. Sales often fall short of focus group predictions, leading to blame being placed on poor execution or other factors.

Statistics That Jump Out

We love our stats, and we actively search for them. Harper’s Magazine (unrelated to Stephen Harper or the Conservative Party of Canada) publishes a page of statistics in each monthly issue. These statistics are meant to provoke discussion, often being surprising or contradictory. They generally come from reliable sources, such as national Ipsos surveys, YouGov, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors or Bank of Canada, government departments or agencies like U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics or Statistics Canada/Canada’s Monthly Labour Force Survey, FBI, Pew Research Center, various universities and institutes like Stanford/University of Toronto/University of British Columbia. The sources are usually easy to find.

One set of statistics that caught our attention (emphasis is ours):

Portion of American men who are “interested” in taking birth control: 4/5 or 80%
Portion of American men who “would be willing” to try birth control this year if it became available today: 1/2 or 50%
Portion of American men who would be willing to try birth control if it involved an invasive procedure: 1/10 or 10%

As you can see, depending on how the question is phrased, very different conclusions can be drawn.

Classic CPG Focus Group Problem

The classic CPG problem is that focus groups often ask questions like “would you consider this new flavour of chips?” or “would you consider buying this new type of cookie?”

People tend to say yes because there’s no commitment involved. Consumers aren’t obligated to buy the new CPG product, switch to the new brand, subscribe to the new streaming service, or shop at the American retailer opening locations in Canada. Moreover, they know that saying yes might make the focus group’s research team a little happier.

Afterward, the participants go home, and the company behind the new product, service, or store expansion interprets the results optimistically: “Our new product/service/expansion has a huge Total Addressable Market (TAM) and is widely appealing!”. They then spend hundreds of millions of dollars on advertising—across billboards, TV, radio, digital/programmatic platforms—and on renovating or opening new stores.

However, when the product, service, or new store launches, it fails. Why? Because the focus group participants were never actually committed to buying or engaging with the offering. The survey questions were framed in a way that didn’t capture their true behaviors or purchasing intentions.

How Reliable Are Surveys?

We are often asked: How reliable are surveys? Do people’s answers actually align with their behaviours and spending patterns?

Having worked with our survey partners, such as Vividata and Numeris, for decades, we can confidently say yes. When survey questions specifically focus on what people have done or what they intend to do in the next 12 months, their responses generally align with their actual behaviors.

For example, during the pre- and post-legalization periods of certain products, one of these survey companies conducted detailed surveys about usage. The questions were highly specific, such as “Did you use product X or Y?” If respondents answered yes, they were prompted with follow-up questions like “How much?” or “How often?”

Separately, there are app-based platforms where users track their personal product usage and share their experiences with the community. Since these apps are designed for personal tracking, users have little incentive to input false information.

The survey company compared their findings with data from these apps and found that the results were consistent.

For companies like Numeris, they use personal meters that participants carry throughout the day and devices that connect to home routers. These devices collect data from specific, pre-selected video platforms, ensuring privacy compliance.

Learn more about Numeris Multimedia Panel

Vividata, on the other hand, offers an app installed on participants’ devices that measures, in a privacy-compliant way, what users view on their screens.

Learn more about Vividata’s Metrica Digital Measurement Panel

We dedicate significant time and effort to vetting potential partners and survey companies. This includes examining how they frame their questions, analyzing survey results, and comparing their findings with other reliable sources.

As a result, we are confident that the partners we collaborate with and the data inputs we rely on accurately reflect real purchasing and consumption behaviours.

Conclusion

There’s a significant difference between “consider leaving Canada” and “plan to leave Canada.”

Similarly, there’s a big difference between asking, “Would you consider buying a Porsche, Lexus, Birkin, or Chanel Classic Flap?” and, “Do you intend to buy a Porsche, Lexus, Birkin, or Chanel Classic Flap in the next 12 months?”

Most people might say, “Yes, I would consider buying one of these at some point.” However, when other factors come into play—such as price, usage, maintenance, practicality (e.g., fuel consumption), or limited inventory—many would say, “No, I do not plan on buying one of these in the next 12 months.”

In the same CBC survey, 82% of newcomers stated, “I love Canada.” A similar percentage reported feeling safer in Canada, experiencing more freedom, considering Canada their home, and being satisfied with their jobs in the country.

So, while the headline might read, “2 in 5 Canadian newcomers would consider leaving Canada,” the reality is that the vast majority of newcomers want to stay.

As always, contact Manifold today with any questions about newcomers at the 6-digit postal code level, purchasing behaviour, consumption patterns, media usage, or demographics.